Lithium battery price analysis: under the epidemic situation, the industry chain has many obstacles

Lithium battery:

The power battery market has not changed much this week. The capacity of the Kirin battery in CATL is 13% higher than that of the 4680 system; the focus of CTP3.0 is to highlight the efficiency and high group rate, and continue to lead the industry’s highest level; the characteristics of the 46 series, standardization and manufacturing convenience , strong reliability and compatibility with various systems, large cylindrical batteries have become a hot spot in the industry; the overall progress of each company is very fast, and continuous innovation and R&D investment are inseparable.

Positive electrode material:

Lithium Iron Phosphate:

There was no major change in the supply and demand pattern of lithium iron phosphate this week, and the price of lithium iron continued to remain stable. Although the mentality of lithium carbonate traders has weakened recently and the quotations have fallen, the tight pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change in the short term, so the price of lithium carbonate in smelters remains high. The strong price of iron phosphate is mainly due to the recent increase in the price of monoammonium phosphate at the cost end due to the outbreak of agricultural demand and strong exports. In addition, the recent severe epidemic in Shandong, Anhui and other regions has resulted in a decline in the output of some lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate enterprises due to poor transportation of raw materials and closure and control of factories.

Ternary material:

The quotations of some medium and high nickel ternary products continued to rise this week. From a market perspective, due to the recent impact of epidemic control on logistics, the production of some enterprises has been limited; in addition, under the influence of lithium hydroxide and nickel price fluctuations, the cost of medium and high nickel ternary remains high, driving the focus of quotations for related products lift. Entering April, with the gradual realization of the interference factors of the previous sharp fluctuations in costs, downstream customers were cautious in purchasing goods, and the wait-and-see atmosphere became stronger.

Ternary precursors:

This week, the precursor of CNY temporarily stabilized, but the market remained volatile. Recently, London nickel and Shanghai nickel have fluctuated greatly, and the current price has not returned to the rational state of supply and demand. It is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation trend in the short term. During the superimposed period of the epidemic, the difficulty of recovering accounts has increased, and the logistics and transportation links have been blocked. Most of the decline is mainly due to the consumption of inventory, and the price change still needs to pay attention to the trend of nickel prices.

Lithium Carbonate:

The mainstream price of lithium carbonate remained high this week, and many traders sold goods at low prices. Although the market supply of lithium carbonate has eased slightly, some smelters are still unable to reach full production due to the shortage of lithium ore resources, and the quotations of various smelters are firm; and in terms of downstream demand, some cathode material companies in the early stage are not willing to receive goods at high prices. 4 The monthly order volume may be lower than expected, and the demand for lithium carbonate may decline. The short-term lithium carbonate price is still in the game, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Lithium manganese oxide:

Recently, the market price of lithium manganate has been weak and stable. As the price of raw material lithium carbonate continues to remain high and the cost remains high, the quotations of lithium manganate enterprises are relatively firm, and most of the production lines of the enterprises are not full. However, Guangdong and other places were greatly affected by the epidemic in March, and most downstream battery factories were unable to sustain normal production. The overall downstream demand was poor. There were many traders and battery factories that had stockpiled a lot of goods in the early stage. The market price is relatively chaotic , the transaction atmosphere is poor.

Negative material:

The recent negative electrode material market performance is acceptable, and the overall supply is still tight. At the beginning of April, the price of needle coke has risen one after another, and the increase this time is around 1,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that battery manufacturers will usher in a new round of negotiation on price increases for negative electrode manufacturers in the second quarter. Throughout the first quarter, the cost of raw materials for anode material companies increased by about 3,000 yuan / ton.

In terms of the downstream demand market, power is still the biggest attraction, but in April it is not expected that the output of the entire market will increase significantly. In terms of industry, Jin Huineng (Ya’an) 100,000 tons of lithium battery anode material integrated production base was successfully commissioned and ignited; Guiyang New Energy’s 30,000 tons of anode material project signed in Shanxi; Snow’s 100,000 tons of anode material project settled in Suizhou.

Diaphragm:

The maintenance of the epidemic and the strengthening of prevention and control efforts have created a certain pressure on customer delivery, while the overall output of the industry has been limited to a certain extent, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region. On the demand side, affected by high material prices, the non-power market continued to be sluggish, but the power market remains relatively strong.

In terms of price: At present, leading manufacturers are still adjusting prices for some specifications of some customers to optimize the product structure of customers. The price increase of the second and third echelon manufacturers after the Spring Festival is still in progress. It is expected that the price of diaphragm will continue to rise slightly in the market outlook.

Enterprise dynamics: Enjie plans to build a diaphragm project in Yuxi, Yunnan. The project plans to build 1.6 billion square meters of diaphragm and coating production lines, with a total investment of about 4.5 billion yuan. The first phase of a new 800 million square meter diaphragm production project will be completed and put into production before the end of December 2024. The second phase will start construction according to the first phase of the project, and build a new 800 million square meter diaphragm production project. It is planned to complete the investment in 2-3 years.

Electrolyte:

The electrolyte market was generally stable this week, and the price was relatively stable. In terms of raw materials, the market demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is basically stable, and the epidemic situation in the production areas of individual enterprises has affected logistics to a certain extent, which has a certain impact on inventory and shipments.

In terms of solvents, prices stabilized after several weeks of corrections and continued to trade sideways at a low level; the load of some enterprises was reduced.

In terms of additives, the VC market has sufficient supply and prices continue to consolidate; the FEC market tends to balance supply and demand.

The pressure of soaring prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate continues to be transmitted to the downstream, and downstream battery factories and upstream material suppliers continue to compete, which affects the battery factory’s operating load and the growth rate of expansion. In the short term, with the second quarter of lithium carbonate and other raw materials With production climbing and price control, the downstream market is expected to increase, and the demand for electrolytes and their materials will continue to rebound.